NI: Northern Ireland: Peace process falters (feature)
01 November 1998
One of the few deadlines in the Belfast Agreement (the multi-party agreement of 10 April 1998) has pasted with little to show by way of progress on the implementation of the all-Ireland structures specified under strand two of the agreement. The Agreement states:
"7. As soon as practically possible after elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, inaugural meetings will take place of the Assembly, the British/Irish Council and the North/South Ministerial Council in their transitional forms. All three institutions will meet regularly and frequently on this basis during the period between the elections to the Assembly, and the transfer of powers to the Assembly, in order to establish their modus operandi.
8. During the transitional period between the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly and the transfer of power to it, representatives of the Northern Ireland transitional Administration and the Irish Government operating in the North/South Ministerial Council will undertake a work programme, in consultation with the British Government, covering at least 12 subject areas, with a view to identifying and agreeing by 31 October 1998 areas where co-operation and implementation for mutual benefit will take place."
Elections to the Assembly took place on 25 June, producing an ambiguous result on the unionist side. Unionists are split over the Agreement: the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the UK Unionists are opposed to it while the biggest party, Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), is formally in favour but contains a strong dissident faction which includes several of their Westminster MPs. The UUP secured 28 Assembly seats (not all of these are pro-Agreement) while the DUP scored 20. There are also three anti-Agreement independent unionist members. The UK Unionists secured five seats. On the Unionist side, therefore, the balance of power is held by the UVF's political wing, the Popular Unionist Party with two seats, and the Alliance Party which holds six. The UDA's political wing, the Ulster Democratic Party failed to win any seats at the election. The Women's Coalition secured two seats. On the nationalist and republican side, the Social Democratic and Labour Party hold 24 seats and Sinn Fein have 18.
The Assembly met on 1 July to consider a number of matters formally referred to it by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Mo Mowlam. These were specified as: the election of a First Minister and Deputy First Minister; agreement on the number of Ministerial posts and the distribution of responsibilities between these posts; the nomination of persons to fill these posts on the basis of the D'Hondt procedure (parties choose the ministries on the basis of party strength); the establishment of related Committees (also using D'Hondt); and the steps necessary to enable relevant Assembly members to participate in inaugural and subsequent meetings of the Shadow British Irish Council and participation with Irish Ministers in the shadow North/South Ministerial Council, with a view to completing by 31 October the work programme mentioned in strand 2 of the Agreement. It was originally anticipated that all the institutions specified in the Agreement would be in place before powers were transferred to the Assembly in February 1999. This timetable is in tatters.
While the First and Deputy First Ministers were successfully elected (David Trimble and Seamus Mallon respectively), and there has been some progress on Assembly standing orders, there has been no agreement at the time of writing (early December) on the number of ministries. This should be fairly straightforward because it has always been understood that there would be 10 Ministers in addition to the First/Deputy Ministers. Unionists, however, prefer a smaller number. If there are ten Ministers, Sinn Fein would have two representatives in the Executive, as would Paisley's DUP. The minimising or excluding of Sinn Fein from the Executive is the central o